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Persistent Dependence in Foreign Exchange Rates? A Reexamination

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Author Info

  • John T. Barkoulas

    (University of Tennessee-Knoxville)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()
    (Boston College)

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    (University of Durham)

  • Atreya Chakraborty

    (Charles River Associates)

Abstract

We test for stochastic long-memory behavior in the returns series of currency rates for eighteen industrial countries using a semiparametric fractional estimation method. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to analyze the temporal stability of the long-memory parameter. Contrary to the findings of some previous studies alluding to the presence of long memory in major currency rates, our evidence provides wide support to the martingale model (and therefore for foreign exchange market efficiency) for our broader sample of foreign currency rates. Any inference of long-range dependence is fragile, especially for the major currency rates. However, long-memory dynamics are found in a small number of secondary (nonmajor) currency rates.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp377.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 377.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 05 Jun 1998
Date of revision: 21 Apr 2000
Publication status: published as Chapter 10 of Global Financial Markets: Issues and Strategies, D.K. Ghosh and M. Ariff, eds., 2004, Praeger Publishers: Westport CT.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:377

Note: This paper was previously circulated as "A Reexamination of the Long-Memory Evidence in the Foreign Currency Market".
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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Related research

Keywords: Foreign exchange; long memory; weak form of market efficiency; Gaussian semiparametric method;

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References

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  1. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  2. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989. "An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  4. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  5. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  9. Barkoulas, John T & Labys, Walter C & Onochie, Joseph I, 1999. "Long Memory In Futures Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 91-100, February.
  10. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 317., Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  12. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
  13. Chung, Ching-Fan & Baillie, Richard T, 1993. "Small Sample Bias in Conditional Sum-of-Squares Estimators of Fractionally Integrated ARMA Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 791-806.
  14. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1971. "When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walk and Martingale Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 225-36, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Elder, John & Jin, Hyun Joung & Koo, Won W., 2004. "A Reexamination Of Fractional Integrating Dynamics In Foreign Currency Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20004, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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