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Fractional dynamics in Japanese financial time series

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  • Barkoulas, John T.
  • Baum, Christopher F.

Abstract

Using the spectral regression and Gaussian semiparametric methods of estimating the long-memory parameter, we test for fractional dynamic behavior in a number of important Japanese financial time series: spot exchange rates, forward exchange rates, stock prices, currency forward premia, Euroyen deposit rates, and the Euroyen term premium. Stochastic long memory is established as a feature of the currency forward premia, Euroyen deposit rates, and Euroyen term premium series. The martingale model cannot be rejected for the spot, forward, and stock price series.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (May)
Pages: 115-124

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Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:6:y:1998:i:1-2:p:115-124

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin

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  1. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  4. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1971. "When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walk and Martingale Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 225-36, August.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  7. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 314., Boston College Department of Economics.
  8. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
  9. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  10. Barkoulas, John T & Labys, Walter C & Onochie, Joseph I, 1999. "Long Memory In Futures Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 91-100, February.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
  12. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
  14. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Assaf, A., 2006. "Dependence and mean reversion in stock prices: The case of the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 286-304, September.
  2. Daniel Oliveira Cajueiro & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2010. "Fluctuation Dynamics in US Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 206, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Jamdee, Sutthisit & Los, Cornelis A., 2007. "Long memory options: LM evidence and simulations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-280, June.
  4. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
  5. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behavior in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Working Papers 2014-184, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. Ellis, Craig & Wilson, Patrick, 2004. "Another look at the forecast performance of ARFIMA models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-81.

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