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Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy

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  • Tsang, Andrew

Abstract

This paper applies causal machine learning methods to analyze the heterogeneous regional impacts of monetary policy in China. The method uncovers the heterogeneous regional impacts of different monetary policy stances on the provincial figures for real GDP growth, CPI inflation and loan growth compared to the national averages. The varying effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy phases on Chinese provinces are highlighted and explained. Subsequently, applying interpretable machine learning, the empirical results show that the credit channel is the main channel affecting the regional impacts of monetary policy. An imminent conclusion of the uneven provincial responses to the "one size fits all" monetary policy is that different policymakers should coordinate their efforts to search for the optimal fiscal and monetary policy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsang, Andrew, 2021. "Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 62, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:62
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; monetary policy; regional heterogeneity; machine learning; shadow banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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