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What 31 provinces reveal about growth in China

Author

Listed:
  • Eeva Kerola
  • Benoit Mojon

Abstract

It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Eeva Kerola & Benoit Mojon, 2021. "What 31 provinces reveal about growth in China," BIS Working Papers 925, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:925
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsang, Andrew, 2021. "Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 110703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daniel Rees & Guofeng Sun, 2021. "The natural interest rate in China," BIS Working Papers 949, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; GDP; provincial data; business cycles; principal component;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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