The effects of US economic and financial crises on euro area convergence
AbstractAs economic and financial integration between the US and the euro area is strong, assessing whether the recent US crisis may affect the process of real and nominal convergence within the euro area is important. The paper addresses this issue in the framework of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model, featuring 14 euro area member countries, the USA, and 35 advanced and emerging economies. The results point to a likely contribution of US economic and financial crises to real divergence in the euro area, potentially affecting first, second and third moments of the output growth distribution; on the other hand, implications for nominal convergence are less clearcut.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino in its series Working papers with number 15.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Euro area convergence; Great Recession; financial crisis; economic crisis; factor vector autoregressive models;
Other versions of this item:
- Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The effects of US economic and financial crises on euro area convergence," CeRP Working Papers 99, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-09-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-09-11 (European Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2010-09-11 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-OPM-2010-09-11 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haan, Jakob de & Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2005.
"Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge : a critical survey of empirical research,"
CCSO Working Papers
200508, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
- TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.
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