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Détection non paramétrique de sauts dans la volatilité des marchés financiers

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  • Perron, Benoit

    (Département de sciences économiques)

Abstract

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index. Des études récentes suggèrent que la variance conditionnelle des rendements financiers est sujette à des sauts. Ce papier étend une procédure non paramétrique de détection de sauts développée par Delgado et Hidalgo (2000) à la détection de sauts dans la variance conditionnelle. Les résultats de simulation démontrent que cette procédure estime de façon raisonnable le nombre de sauts ainsi que leurs emplacements. L’application de cette procédure aux rendements journaliers sur l’indice S&P 500 révèle la présence de plusieurs sauts dans la variance conditionnelle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 80 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (Juin-Septembre)
Pages: 229-251

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:80:y:2004:i:2:p:229-251

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