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Regime-Switching Behavior in the Conditional Volatility of MENA Stock Market Returns

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  • Slah Bahloul
  • Fathi Abid

    (Faculty of Economics and Management Science, University of Sfax, Tunisia)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the behavior of the time varying volatility in eleven MENA countries’ stock market using a three-state Markov regime-switching model over the period from October 30, 2006 to October 21, 2011. We find that MENA stock market volatility can be characterized by three regimes: tranquil period with low volatility of volatility, turmoil regime with high volatility of volatility and crisis regime with extremely high volatility of volatility. Besides, the Granger causation effects from the MSCI World index to MENA stock markets are stronger and statistically significant especially in crisis regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Slah Bahloul & Fathi Abid, 2012. "Regime-Switching Behavior in the Conditional Volatility of MENA Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 683, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:683
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Tarek Zaher, 2007. "Middle East and North Africa Markets: Investment Challenges and Market Structure," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-30, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Arfaoui, Mongi, 2016. "Financial market interdependencies: A quantile regression analysis of volatility spillover," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 140-157.

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