The 1929 stock market: Irving Fisher was right
AbstractMany stock market analysts think that in 1929, at the time of the crash, stocks were overvalued. Irving Fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued. In this paper, we use growth theory to estimate the fundamental value of corporate equity and compare it to actual stock valuations. Our estimate is based on values of productive corporate capital, both tangible and intangible, and tax rates on corporate income and distributions. The evidence strongly suggests that Fisher was right. Even at the 1929 peak, stocks were undervalued relative to the prediction of theory.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 294.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Economic Review (Vol. 45, No. 4, November 2004, pp. 991-1009)
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2004-02-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2002-02-15 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MFD-2002-02-15 (Microfinance)
- NEP-PKE-2002-02-15 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1994.
"Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey,"
NBER Working Papers
4795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993.
"Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-44, April.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1989. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investments in Bullocks in India," Bulletins 7487, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001.
"Liquidity Effects in the Bond Market,"
Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers
0117, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000.
"Is the stock market overvalued?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 20-40.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Martin Browning & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1999.
"Micro Data and General Equilibrium Models,"
99-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986.
"Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update,"
NBER Working Papers
8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
- Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
- McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994.
"The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
- Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Razzak, Weshah, 2013. "An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand," MPRA Paper 52461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2007.
"The FedÕs Reaction to the Stock Market During the Great Depression: Fact or Artefact?,"
Working Paper Series
33-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
- Monique Ebell & Albrecht Ritschl, 2008.
"Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0876, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Albrecht Ritschl & Monique Ebell, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," 2007 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Monique Ebell & Albrecht Ritschl, 2008. "Real origins of the great depression: monopoly power, unions and the American business cycle in the 1920s," Economic History Working Papers 19566, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.