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Business Cycle Dating after the Great Moderation: A Consistent Two – Stage Maximum Likelihood Method

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  • Gilbert Mbara

    (University of Warsaw)

Abstract

The two-state Markov switching model of dating recessions breaks down when confronted with the low volatility macroeconomic time series of the post 1984 Great Moderation era. In this paper, I present a new model specification and a two--stage maximum likelihood estimation procedure that can account for the lower volatility and persistence of macroeconomic times series after 1984, while preserving the economically interpretable two--state boom--bust business cycle switching. I first demonstrate the poor finite sample properties (bias and inconsistency) of standard models then suggest a new specification and estimation procedure that resolves these issues. The suggested likelihood profiling method achieves consistent estimation of unconditional variances across volatility regimes while resolving the poor performance of models with multiple lag structures in dating business cycle turning points. Based on this novel model specification and estimation, I find that the nature of US business cycles has changed: economic growth has permanently become lower while booms last longer than before. The length and size of recessions however remain unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Mbara, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating after the Great Moderation: A Consistent Two – Stage Maximum Likelihood Method," Working Papers 2017-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2017-13
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/3603/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime Switching; Hidden Markov Models; Great Moderation; Maximum Likelihood Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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