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Electric Cars and Oil Prices

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Author Info
Azar, Jose

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Abstract

This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices during the second half of 2008. These findings are significant because they show that oil markets respond to developments related to alternative technologies. I investigate several hypotheses explaining these results.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15538.

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Date of creation: 06 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15538

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Related research
Keywords: Oil prices; crude oil; electric cars; electric vehicles; Google Trends; Google Insights;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
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  5. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
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  7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 179-206.
  8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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