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The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates: Empirical modeling of exit strategies

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  • Marquez, Jaime
  • Morse, Ari
  • Schlusche, Bernd
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    Abstract

    This paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves. Treating outright securities holdings of the Federal Reserve as a policy tool, we estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policy on overnight funding rates. Further, we offer the first empirical assessment of the FOMC’s principles of the exit strategy. Assuming a path for removing monetary policy accommodation that is consistent with the FOMC’s exit principles, we project that the federal funds rate increases to 70 basis points by 2016, settling in a corridor bracketed by the discount rate and the interest rate on excess reserves, as excess reserves of depository institutions decline to near zero.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 5300-5315

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:5300-5315

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Reserve balances; Federal funds rate; Balance sheet; Exit strategy; FIML;

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    References

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    1. Seth B. Carpenter & Jane E. Ihrig & Elizabeth C. Klee & Alexander H. Boote & Daniel W. Quinn, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's balance sheet: a primer and projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth Klee, 2010. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Gary B. Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," NBER Working Papers 15223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004. "The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    7. Judson, Ruth A. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Whither the liquidity effect: The impact of Federal Reserve open market operations in recent years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 713-731, September.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    10. James D. Hamilton, 1996. "Measuring the liquidity effect," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "Stressed, not frozen: the Federal Funds market in the financial crisis," Staff Reports 437, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2008. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence at the Monthly Frequency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, 02.
    13. Kopchak, Seth J., 2011. "The liquidity effect for open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3292-3299.
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