The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates: Empirical modeling of exit strategies
AbstractThis paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves. Treating outright securities holdings of the Federal Reserve as a policy tool, we estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policy on overnight funding rates. Further, we offer the first empirical assessment of the FOMC’s principles of the exit strategy. Assuming a path for removing monetary policy accommodation that is consistent with the FOMC’s exit principles, we project that the federal funds rate increases to 70 basis points by 2016, settling in a corridor bracketed by the discount rate and the interest rate on excess reserves, as excess reserves of depository institutions decline to near zero.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Reserve balances; Federal funds rate; Balance sheet; Exit strategy; FIML;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
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