What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model
AbstractIn this paper, we model the policy stance of the People¡¦s Bank of China (PBoC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBoC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBoC's implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets figured significantly in PBoC's policy changes, but not output gaps.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0806.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
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Monetary policy; People's Bank of China; qualitative response models; large factor models;
Other versions of this item:
- Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-07-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CNA-2008-07-30 (China)
- NEP-DCM-2008-07-30 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-MAC-2008-07-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-07-30 (Monetary Economics)
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