From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run
AbstractThis paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices over 160 years for 30 commodities representing 7.89 trillion USD worth of production in 2011. In so doing, it suggests and documents a complete typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: real commodity prices of both energy and non-energy commodities have been on the rise from 1950 across all weighting schemes; there is a consistent pattern, in both past and present, of commodity price super-cycles which entail decades-long positive deviations from these long-run trends with the latest set of super-cycles likely at their peak; these commodity price super-cycles are punctuated by booms and busts which are historically pervasive and becoming more exacerbated over time. These last elements of boom and bust are also found to be particularly bearing in determining real commodity price volatility as well as potentially bearing in influencing growth in commodity exporting economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18874.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Other versions of this item:
- David S. Jacks, 2013. "From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run," CEH Discussion Papers 013, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
- Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
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