This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
BENOIT BELLONE (OECD)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper introduces an upgraded version of MSVARlib, a Gauss and Ox- Gauss compliant library, focusing on Multivariate Markov Switching Regressions in their most general specification. This new set of procedures allows to estimate, through classical optimization methods, models belonging to the MSI(M)(AH)-VARX ``intercept regime dependent'' family. This research enhances the first package MSVARlib 1.1, which has been deeply inspired by the works of Hamilton and Krolzig. Not to mention the extension to a generalized multivariate regression framework, it notably augments the range of models with a possibly unlimited finite number of Markov states, offers automatic or manual intialization procedures and adds new statistical tests. The first part of this article provides the basic theoretical grounds of the related Markov-switching models. Following sections give some illustrations of the programs through univariate and multivariate examples. One is based on a non-linear reading of the american unemployment rate. A second study is focused on coincident stochastic models of US recessions and slowdowns. The paper concludes on possible extensions and new applications. Detailed guidelines in appendices and tutorial programs are provided to help the reader handling the Gauss package and the joined replication files.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/0508/0508017.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0508017.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 19 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0508017

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27. Gauss programs, compatible with 3.2 Versions or upper. A complete Gauss library to estimate MSVAR models or Markov switching regressions. Codes, data and programs available at http://bellone.ensae.net
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords: Multivariate Markov-Switching Regressions Hidden markov Models Non linear regressions Open source Gauss library Business cycle EM algorithm Kittagawa-Hamilton Filtering Recession Detection Models MSVAR MS-VAR Hamilton's Model Krolzig MSVAR library Filtered probabilities Smoothed probabilities.

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  2. Jean-Pierre Urbain & Sébastien Laurent, 2005. "Bridging the gap between Ox and Gauss using OxGauss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 131-139. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu, 2004. "Optimal test for Markov switching," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 396, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "MSVARlib: a new Gauss library to estimate multivariate Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0406004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's real about the business cycle?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 435-452. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS indexes over 600000 items of research in Economics alone.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.