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Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany

Author

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  • Cappiello, Lorenzo
  • Guéné, Stéphane

Abstract

This paper studies the role of inflation in the determination of financial asset prices. We estimate an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model à la Merton (1973), with inflation as an independent source of risk, for France and Germany. Our study also allows us to evaluate how the different nature of the French and German monetary policies before 1999 as well as the convergence process towards the single currency might have affected the role of inflation in the pricing of financial assets. We find that inflation is a significant explanatory factor for the pricing of stocks and government bonds in the two countries. Moreover, while there seems to be no clear structural break in the impact of inflation on asset prices after Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union, such an impact has been increasingly similar in the two countries after 1999. JEL Classification: C32, C61, E44, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Cappiello, Lorenzo & Guéné, Stéphane, 2005. "Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany," Working Paper Series 436, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005436
    Note: 234084
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp436.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    3. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Ghada Abbas, 2006. "Gestion de la dette publique et lissage des taux d’imposition," CAE Working Papers 46, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; GARCH-in-Mean; Intertemporal CAPM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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