IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bog/econbl/y2020i51p43-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign credit ratings and the fundamentals of the Greek economy

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitris Malliaropulos

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Petros Migiakis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

We discuss the factors behind sovereign credit ratings and reproduce their quantitative compo-nent, focusing on the case of Greece. The sovereign credit rating of Greece is still lower than the investment grade threshold. However, some of the fundamentals of the Greek economy are shown to be better than the average of the rating category it belongs to at present (BB) and better even than higher rating categories. Based on the reproduction of the score component of sovereign credit ratings of the three major Credit Rating Agencies, we show that an improvement in the institu-tional factors of the Greek economy to the level of the early 2000s can lead to a significant increase in Greece’s score, thus contributing to an upgrade to the investment grade category.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2020. "Sovereign credit ratings and the fundamentals of the Greek economy," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 51, pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2020:i:51:p:43-72
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/econbull202007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klee, Elizabeth, 2008. "How people pay: Evidence from grocery store data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 526-541, April.
    2. Itai Agur & Mario Bergara & Michael D. Bordo & Alessandra Cillo & Walter Engert & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Ben S.C. Fung & Ernest Gnan & Andrew T. Levin & Dirk Niepelt & Ruth Judson & Donato Mascia, 2018. "Do We Need Central Bank Digital Currency? Economics, Technology and Institutions," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2018/2 edited by Ernest Gnan and Donato Masciandaro, May.
    3. Bullmann, Dirk & Klemm, Jonas & Pinna, Andrea, 2019. "In search for stability in crypto-assets: are stablecoins the solution?," Occasional Paper Series 230, European Central Bank.
    4. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2016. "The macroeconomics of central bank issued digital currencies," Bank of England working papers 605, Bank of England.
    5. Olga Gouveia & Enestor Dos Santos & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Alejandro Neut & Javier Sebastian, 2017. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts," Working Papers 17/04, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Charles M. Kahn & Francisco Rivadeneyra & Tsz-Nga Wong, 2018. "Should the Central Bank Issue E-money?," Staff Working Papers 18-58, Bank of Canada.
    7. Carin van der Cruijsen & Lola Hernandez & Nicole Jonker, 2017. "In love with the debit card but still married to cash," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2989-3004, June.
    8. Hartmann, Monika & Gijsel, Lola Hernandez-van & Plooij, Mirjam & Vandeweyer, Quentin, 2019. "Are instant payments becoming the new normal? A comparative study," Occasional Paper Series 229, European Central Bank.
    9. Anil K. Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Coexistence of Lending and Deposit‐taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 33-73, February.
    10. Ben Fung & Hanna Halaburda, 2016. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Framework for Assessing Why and How," Discussion Papers 16-22, Bank of Canada.
    11. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
    12. Jobst, Clemens & Stix, Helmut, 2017. "Doomed to Disappear? The Surprising Return of Cash Across Time and Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 12327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kumhof, Michael & Noone, Clare, 2018. "Central bank digital currencies - design principles and balance sheet implications," Bank of England working papers 725, Bank of England.
    14. Mr. Biaggio Bossone, 2001. "Should Banks Be Narrowed?," IMF Working Papers 2001/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin, 2017. "Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 23711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Codruta Boar & Henry Holden & Amber Wadsworth, 2020. "Impending arrival - a sequel to the survey on central bank digital currency," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 107.
    17. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    18. Meaning, Jack & Dyson, Ben & Barker, James & Clayton, Emily, 2018. "Broadening narrow money: monetary policy with a central bank digital currency," Bank of England working papers 724, Bank of England.
    19. Freedman, 2000. "Monetary Policy Implementation: Past, Present and Future – Will Electronic Money Lead to the Eventual Demise of Central Banking?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227, July.
    20. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Between Cash, Deposit And Bitcoin: Would We Like A Central Bank Digital Currency? Money Demand And Experimental Economics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1875, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    21. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money in the modern economy: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 4-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yorgos Korfiatis, 2020. "D-euro: issuing the digital trust," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 51, pages 1-35, July.
    2. Constantina Backinezos & Stelios Panagiotou & Christos Papazoglou, 2020. "The current account adjustment in Greece during the crisis: cyclical or structural?," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 51, pages 1-18, July.
    3. Sofia Anyfantaki & Hiona Balfoussia & Dimitra Dimitropoulou & Heather Gibson & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Filippos Petroulakis & Anastasia Theofilakou & Melina Vasardani, 2020. "COVID-19 and other pandemics: a literature review for economists," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 51, pages 1-36, July.
    4. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    5. Marcelo A. T. Aragão, 2021. "A Few Things You Wanted to Know about the Economics of CBDCs, but were Afraid to Model: a survey of what we can learn from who has done," Working Papers Series 554, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Carlos Viñuela & Juan Sapena & Gonzalo Wandosell, 2020. "The Future of Money and the Central Bank Digital Currency Dilemma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    7. Alexandra Mitschke, 2021. "Central Bank Digital Currencies and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Euro Area," Working Papers Dissertations 74, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    8. Hossein Nabilou, 2020. "Testing the waters of the Rubicon: the European Central Bank and central bank digital currencies," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 299-314, December.
    9. Theodore Pelagidis & Eleftheria Kostika, 2022. "Investigating the role of central banks in the interconnection between financial markets and cryptoassets," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(3), pages 481-507, September.
    10. Anil Savio Kavuri & Alistair Milne, 2019. "FinTech and the future of financial services: What are the research gaps?," CAMA Working Papers 2019-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Sarah Allen & Srđjan Čapkun & Ittay Eyal & Giulia Fanti & Bryan A. Ford & James Grimmelmann & Ari Juels & Kari Kostiainen & Sarah Meiklejohn & Andrew Miller & Eswar Prasad & Karl Wüst & Fan Zhang, 2020. "Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations," NBER Working Papers 27634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Janet Hua & Yu Zhu, 2021. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through with Central Bank Digital Currency," Staff Working Papers 21-10, Bank of Canada.
    13. Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Irfan, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M. & Karim, Sitara, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of central bank digital currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Wandhöfer, Ruth, 2019. "Technology innovation in financial markets : Implications for money, payments and settlement finality," Other publications TiSEM b7d8b24a-dbf4-4f82-b596-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Emanuele Borgonovo & Stefano Caselli & Alessandra Cillo & Donato Masciandaro & Giovanno Rabitti, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies, central bank digital cash, traditional money: does privacy matter?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1895, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    17. Jonathan Chiu & Mohammad Davoodalhosseini & Janet Hua Jiang & Yu Zhu, 2019. "Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment," Staff Working Papers 19-20, Bank of Canada.
    18. Raphael A. Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8655, CESifo.
    19. Todd Keister & Daniel Sanches, 2023. "Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 404-431.
    20. Raphael Auer & Rainer Boehme, 2020. "The technology of retail central bank digital currency," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit ratings; sovereign risk; Greek economy; institutions; governance indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2020:i:51:p:43-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anastasios Rizos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.