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Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany

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  • Lutz, Christian
  • Meyer, Bernd

Abstract

The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy.

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  • Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:882-887
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Dr. Christian Lutz, 2013. "The Renewable Power Generation Module (RPGM) – An extension to the GWS model family to endogenize technological change in the renewable power generation sector," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-7, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1634-1643.
    3. Shiu-Sheng Chen and Kai-Wei Hsu, 2013. "Oil Price Volatility and Bilateral Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    4. Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2014. "Oil Prices, Production and Inflation in the Selected EU Countries: Threshold Cointegration Approach," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 71-91.
    5. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    6. Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Lutz, Christian, 2016. "Endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 739-751.
    7. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos J. García & Esteban Skoknic, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the electricity price: lessons from Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2407-2428, May.
    8. Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
    9. Heidorn, Thomas & Van Huellen, Sophie & Ruehl, C. & Woebbeking, F., 2017. "The long- and short-run impact of oil price changes on major global economies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 225, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    10. Allah Morad Seif & Hossein Panahi & Davoud Hamidi Razi, 2017. "An Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 469-497, Summer.
    11. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv290, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    12. Malliaris, A.G. & Kyrtsou, C., 2009. "Editorial introduction of the special issue: "Energy sector pricing and macroeconomic dynamics"," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 825-826, November.
    13. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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