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Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today

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  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Kirsten Wiebe

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

The paper at hand presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are implemented in the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. Additionally, the scenarios incorporate different technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy, which cannot be forecast using econometric methods. GINFORS then endogenously determines world-wide energy demand and energy prices.The results show that the oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect effects on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium term reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution, lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 11-3.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:11-3

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Keywords: oil peak today; model-based scenario analysis; world-wide energy demand; energy prices;

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References

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  1. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
  3. Stern, David I., 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta-Analysis," MPRA Paper 13734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
  5. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  6. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
  7. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
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Cited by:
  1. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Wolfgang Schade & Dr. Michael Krail, 2011. "Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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