Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today
AbstractThe paper at hand presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are implemented in the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. Additionally, the scenarios incorporate different technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy, which cannot be forecast using econometric methods. GINFORS then endogenously determines world-wide energy demand and energy prices.The results show that the oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect effects on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium term reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution, lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 11-3.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
oil peak today; model-based scenario analysis; world-wide energy demand; energy prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2011-09-22 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2011-09-22 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008.
"Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
- Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David I. Stern, 2012.
"Interfuel Substitution: A Meta‐Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 307-331, 04.
- David I. Stern, 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta-Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2009-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Stern, David I., 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta-Analysis," MPRA Paper 13734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David I.Stern, 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta Analysis," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 0933, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Stern, David I., 2009. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta-Analysis," Research Reports 94882, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
- Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
- Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
- Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
- Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Wolfgang Schade & Dr. Michael Krail, 2011. "Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (GWS mbH).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.