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Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil

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  • Korhonen, Iikka
  • Ledyaeva, Svetlana

Abstract

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consuming economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (here, Russia and Canada) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock leading to a price increase of 50% boosts Russian GDP by about 6%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of positive oil price shocks, as economic activity in their exporter countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries, which trade more with oil producers, gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producing countries. In general, the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found for Japan, China, the USA, Finland and Switzerland, while other countries in our sample seem to have fared quite well during recent positive oil price shocks. The indirect effects are negative for Russia, Finland, Germany and Netherlands.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 848-856

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:848-856

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Oil Macroeconomic fluctuations Trade linkages Russia;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Richard Saba, 2014. "How Does the Oil Price Shock Affect Consumers?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-10, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  2. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
  3. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?," MPRA Paper 36182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  5. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets - Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "Cross-Country Differences in the Effects of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3306, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2011. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Working Papers 110, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  8. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
  9. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade: Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 31-49, April.
  11. Valter Di Giacinto, 2011. "Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 827, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  13. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2009. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade," Discussion Papers in Economics 10963, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-14, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  15. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.

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