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Prospects for Commodity Exporters

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  • Paul Collier
  • Benedikt Goderis

Abstract

Those low-income countries that export non-agricultural commodities are in the midst of a resource transfer. It is undoubtedly the biggest opportunity for transformative development that these societies have experienced, dwarfing both aid and previous commodity booms. To get it in proportion, in 2004 commodity exports from Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 146 billion US dollars or 28 percent of the region’s GDP, while aid amounted to 5 percent of GDP. Compared with the boom of the 1970s many more countries are beneficiaries: the push to diversify sources of supply has resulted in exploitable discoveries in places that were previously political no-go areas. Further, whereas the boom of the 1970s was conjured up by the OPEC cartel, this one is grounded in Asian growth and so is intrinsically less precarious. In this paper, the authors draw on a range of new research that provides a prognosis of prospects, a diagnostic of likely problems, and prescribes an agenda for international action. The paper is organized around these three objectives.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB in its journal World Economics Journal.

Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 1-15

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Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:281

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Cited by:
  1. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Paul Collier, 2011. "Public Capital in Resource Rich Economies: Is there a Curse?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2011-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2009. "Testing the neocon agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308, April.
  5. Benjamin Mandel, 2011. "The dynamics and differentiation of Latin American metal exports," Staff Reports 508, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Korhonen, Iikka & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate, Output and Oil: Case of Four Large Energy Producers," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. Égert, Balázs, 2009. "Dutch disease in former Soviet Union: Witch-hunting?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2008. "Testing the Neocon Agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," OxCarre Working Papers 013, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

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