Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Imran Shah

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining output and domestic price fluctuation in small emerging economies after 1990's. We are also keen to assess whether oil price shocks have different effects on macroeconomic variations in oil importing (Pakistan and Thailand) and oil exporting (Indonesia and Malaysia) countries. A structural VAR is applied to identify different structural shocks and further explore the relative contributions of different shocks on macroeconomic fluctuation. Our results show that oil price shocks have negligible positive effects on output in one oil exporting country (Malaysia) but also in two oil importing countries (Pakistan and Thailand). However, it is less likely that oil price shocks have a substantial impact on macroeconomic fluctuation. The aggregate supply and demand shocks are the main sources of fluctuation in output and domestic price respectively in Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. In Indonesia, aggregate supply shocks are the key reason for both output fluctuation and inflation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/economics/working_papers/pdffiles/dp12626.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK in its series Bristol Economics Discussion Papers with number 12/626.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:12/626

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 8 Woodland Road, Bristol, BS8 1TN
Phone: 0117 928 8415
Fax: 0117 928 8577
Email:
Web page: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations; Oil price; Structural VAR models; Small Asian developing economies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
  2. John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  3. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country," Working Paper 2008/16, Norges Bank.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
  7. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
  8. Bjornland, Hilde Christiane, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks--A Comparative Study," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(5), pages 578-607, September.
  9. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
  10. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  11. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  12. Shimon Awerbuch & Raphael Sauter, 2005. "Exploiting the Oil-GDP Effect to Support Renewables Deployment," SPRU Working Paper Series 129, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex.
  13. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
  14. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  16. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
  17. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  18. Jürgen Janger & Karin Wagner, 2004. "Sectoral Specialization in Austria and in the EU-15," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 37–54.
  19. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "How resilient is the modern economy to energy price shocks?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 3, pages 21-32.
  20. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
  21. Cover, James Peery & Enders, Walter & Hueng, C. James, 2006. "Using the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model to Identify Structural Demand-Side and Supply-Side Shocks: Results Using a Bivariate VAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 777-790, April.
  22. Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-29, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:12/626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Temple).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.