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Exploring Malaysia’s Transformation to Net Oil Importer and Oil Import Dependence

Author

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  • Yudha Prambudia

    (Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan)

  • Masaru Nakano

    (Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan)

Abstract

Within ASEAN, Malaysia is a major oil-exporting country; however, it is expected to become a net oil-importing country in the near future. This issue brings concerns over Malaysia’s energy security, particularly on the aspect of oil import dependency. This is because its transportation and industrial sectors are still heavily dependent on oil products. By simulating dynamic interplays between developments in Malaysia’s oil sector and its economy sectors, this study explores the possible years of the transformation and the extent to which it will be dependent on oil import. Four scenarios related to enhanced oil recovery, exploration and production investment, subsidy elimination and technology advances are considered for the simulation. In isolation, the subsidy elimination scenario provides the best result. However, if all scenarios are considered simultaneously, an undesired effect emerges. The earliest that Malaysia is expected to become a net oil-importing country is 2012 and the latest is 2021. Malaysia’s dependence on oil imports is expected to continue increasing. In all scenarios, the shares of oil import in the total supply rise to above 90% in 2030, with the highest share at 97%.

Suggested Citation

  • Yudha Prambudia & Masaru Nakano, 2012. "Exploring Malaysia’s Transformation to Net Oil Importer and Oil Import Dependence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:5:y:2012:i:8:p:2989-3018:d:19389
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Mukhtar, M.N.A. & Hagos, Ftwi Y. & Noor, M.M. & Mamat, Rizalman & Abdullah, A. Adam & Abd Aziz, Abd Rashid, 2019. "Tri-fuel emulsion with secondary atomization attributes for greener diesel engine – A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 490-506.
    3. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2015. "Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 261-274.
    4. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    5. Kamonphorn Kanchana & Hironobu Unesaki, 2015. "Assessing Energy Security Using Indicator-Based Analysis: The Case of ASEAN Member Countries," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-47, December.

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