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The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks--A Comparative Study

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  • Bjornland, Hilde Christiane

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, the UK and the USA, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector autoregression model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973-74 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 68 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 578-607

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:5:p:578-607

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Cited by:
  1. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
  2. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Katsuya Ito, 2009. "The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 220-227, May.
  4. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
  5. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2003. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela," Memorandum 02/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  7. Guidi, Francesco, 2009. "The economic effects of oil prices shocks on the UK manufacturing and services sector," MPRA Paper 16171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
  9. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
  10. Katsuya Ito, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2013), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-21, July.
  11. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:17:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lanteri , Luis N., 2012. "Choques macroeconómicos al sector externo. Evidencia para la Argentina (1980-2011)/Macroeconomic Shocks to the External Sector. Evidence for Argentina (1980-2011)," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 1061 (24 pa, Diciembre.
  14. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 0860, European Central Bank.

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