IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v68y2000i5p578-607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks—A Comparative Study

Author

Listed:
  • Hilde Christiane Bjørnland

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, the UK and the USA, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector autoregression model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973–74 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks—A Comparative Study," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(5), pages 578-607, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:5:p:578-607
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00220
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-9957.00220?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Francesco Guidi, 2010. "The Economic Effects of Oil Prices Shocks on the UK Manufacturing and Services Sectors," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, October.
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    4. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    5. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2020. "Covid-19 pandemic and economic crisis: The Nigerian experience and structural causes," MPRA Paper 99424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sajjad Barkordari & maryam fattahi, 2017. "An Equilibrium Aggregate Demand And Supply Model To Examine The Dynamic Effect Of Oil Price Shocks On Output And Inflation In Iran As An Oil Exporting Country," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 839-846.
    8. Katsuya Ito, 2009. "The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 220-227, May.
    9. Chinnadurai Kathiravan & Murugesan Selvam & Balasundram Maniam & Leo Paul Dana & Manivannan Babu, 2023. "The Effects of Crude Oil Price Surprises on National Income: Evidence from India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, January.
    10. N. P. Ravindra Deyshappriya & I. A. D. D. W. Rukshan & N. P. Dammika Padmakanthi, 2023. "Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth of OECD Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    12. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    14. Wali Aya Rumbia & Abd Azis Muthalib & Bakhtiar Abbas & Pasrun Adam & Heppi Millia & La Ode Saidi & Muh. Irfandy Azis, 2020. "Crude Oil Prices, Household Spending and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-4 Region: An Analysis of Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 437-442.
    15. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:17:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Katsuya Ito, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-21, July.
    18. Lanteri , Luis N., 2012. "Choques macroeconómicos al sector externo. Evidencia para la Argentina (1980-2011)/Macroeconomic Shocks to the External Sector. Evidence for Argentina (1980-2011)," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 1061(24.)-1, Diciembre.
    19. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank.
    20. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(6), pages 1-8.
    21. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    22. Katsuya Ito, 2008. "Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(17), pages 1-9.
    23. Mohsen Mohammadi Khyareh & Vahid Taghinejad Omran & Mohammad Ali Ehsani, 2015. "Evaluating The Welfare Aspects Of The Simple Monetary Rules For Iran," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 141-166, July - Se.
    24. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    25. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2019. "The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Libya," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(2), pages 232-242, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:5:p:578-607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.