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Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich

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Author Info

  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Anke Mönnig

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Wolfgang Schade

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Michael Krail

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente werden oft komplexe gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle eingesetzt, um die vielfältigen Anpassungsreaktionen der Volkswirtschaft auf Preisänderungen, Investitionsimpulse, geänderte Exporttätigkeiten und andere ökonomische Stellgrößen in ihrer Gesamtheit abzubilden. Der erstmalige direkte Vergleich der zur Abschätzung energiepolitischer Fragestellungen eingesetzten Modelle ASTRA (FhG-ISI) und PANTA RHEI (GWS) trägt dazu bei, die Kommunikation der jeweiligen Ergebnisse zu vereinfachen. Die Modelle werden anhand verschiedener Kriterien (Datenstand, Modellansatz, Modellphilosophie) zunächst gegenübergestellt. In einem nächsten Vergleichsschritt werden die quantitativen Ergebnisse verschiedener bereits durchgeführter Modellierungsarbeiten für Deutschland und die EU verglichen und schließlich parallele Simulationen unter gleichen Vorgaben gerechnet. Der Modellvergleich zwischen PANTA RHEI und ASTRA zeigt, dass beide Modelle zuverlässige und auf nationaler, sowie europäischer Ebene bereits vielfach angewandte Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen sind. PANTA RHEI bildet dabei den Energieverbrauch des Wohnungssektors sowie der Industrie und die erneuerbaren Energien detaillierter ab, ASTRA den des Verkehrssektors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 11-4.

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Length: 85 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:11-4

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Keywords: Modellvergleich; Abschätzung umweltpolitischer Instrumente; Simulationsrechnung;

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References

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  1. Stefan Bach, 1997. "Steuerreform in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(3-4), pages 291-316.
  2. Dr. Christian Lutz & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2007. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte niedrigerer Strompreise in Deutschland," GWS Discussion Paper Series 07-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  3. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, October.
  4. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  5. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
  6. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
  7. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, October.
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