German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market
AbstractIn the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic e ffects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out on the German electricity generation sector. A detailed optimization model for European electricity markets is used to analyze two scenarios with di fferent lifetimes for nuclear plants (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of generation from renewable energy sources in Germany. Our principal findings are: First, nuclear capacities are mainly replaced by longer lifetimes of existing coal-fired plants and the construction of new gas-fired plants. Second, fossil fuel-based generation and power imports increase, while power exports are reduced in response to the lower nuclear generation. Third, despite the increased fossil generation, challenging climate protection goals can still be achieved within the framework of the considered scenarios. Finally, system costs and electricity prices are clearly higher. We conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with an accelerated nuclear phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that such a policy requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2011-12.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 28 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
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Nuclear policy; climate protection; renewable energy; electricity market modeling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
- Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-01-10 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2012-01-10 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-01-10 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-01-10 (Microeconomic European Issues)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paulus, Moritz & Borggrefe, Frieder, 2011. "The potential of demand-side management in energy-intensive industries for electricity markets in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 432-441, February.
- Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Paulus, Moritz & Richter, Jan & Trüby, Johannes & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2011. "Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 185-192.
- Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Fürsch, Michaela & Malischek, Raimund & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2012. "Der Merit-Order-Effekt der erneuerbaren Energien - Analyse der kurzen und langen Frist," EWI Working Papers 2012-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
- Fürsch, Michaela & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "Promotion of Electricity from Renewable Energy in Europe post 2020 - the Economic Benefits of Cooperation," EWI Working Papers 2013-16, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
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