Elektromobilität 2035 : Effekte auf Wirtschaft und Erwerbstätigkeit durch die Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs von Personenkraftwagen

"This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of electrification of the powertrain in automobiles (e-mobility). This development involves considerable challenges at enterprises and the political level. Using the scenario technique, a number of assumptions were made and integrated into the analytical tool QINFORGE. In the beginning of the scenario, the underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. However, at the long run they lead to a lower GDP and level of employment. The change in technology leads to 114.000 job cuts in the end of 2035. The whole economy loses nearly 20 billion Euro (0.6 % of the GDP). In the scenario we assume a share of only 23 percent of electric compared to all cars in 2035. The total turnover of the workforce resulting from the electrification of the powertrain of automobiles will reach 150.000 in the year 2035. The electrification of the power-train will especially affect skilled workers negatively. The demand for specialist and expert activities also decreases with a time delay. In the long run there are negative effects for all requirement levels. A much higher market penetration could lead to stronger economic effects. Furthermore, a higher market share of domestic produced cars and traction batteries could generate more positive economic effects. At the moment this scenario includes a lot of assumptions where further research is necessary. This applies in particular to the position of the supplier industry, the distinction between different types of fuel and the expansion of other mobility sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))