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National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

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  • Bernd Meyer
  • Christian Lutz
  • Peter Schnur
  • Gerd Zika
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    Abstract

    Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany-super-`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535310601164765
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 37-55

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:19:y:2007:i:1:p:37-55

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CESR20

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    Related research

    Keywords: Policy simulation; econometric models; global modelling;

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    Cited by:
    1. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
    2. Britta Stöver, 2012. "Reallocation of Purchasing Power due to Demographic Change - The Case of North Rhine-Westphalia," GWS Discussion Paper Series 12-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    3. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    4. Stocker, Andrea & Großmann, Anett & Madlener, Reinhard & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2011. "Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model "e3.at"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6082-6099, October.
    5. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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