Meyer, Bernd Lutz, Christian Schnur, Peter () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) Zika, Gerd () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
Abstract
"Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger." (author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number
200612.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
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Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Schwengler, Barbara & Türck, Matthias, 2007.
"Vergleich von deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen,"
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200703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
[Downloadable!]