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National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies : a sensitivity analysis for Germany

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  • Meyer, Bernd
  • Lutz, Christian
  • Schnur, Peter

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Zika, Gerd

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

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    Abstract

    "Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 200612.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 27 Jul 2006
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: published in: Economic Systems Research, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007), p. 37-55
    Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200612

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    Keywords: Wirtschaftspolitik; Globalisierung - Auswirkungen; Export; Preisniveau; Importquote; Exportquote; Welthandel; Ökonometrie - Modell; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung; Außenhandelspolitik; Außenhandelsentwicklung;

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    References

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, 03.
    2. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Blien, Uwe & Kirchhof, Kai & Ludewig, Oliver, 2006. "Agglomeration effects on labour demand," IAB Discussion Paper 200628, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Schwengler, Barbara & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Vergleich von deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen," IAB Discussion Paper 200703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Gerd Ahlert, 2006. "Volkswirtschaftliche Wirkungen des Sportstättenbaus," GWS Discussion Paper Series 06-2, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    4. Hohendanner, Christian, 2007. "Verdrängen Ein-Euro-Jobs sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung in den Betrieben?," IAB Discussion Paper 200708, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Kruppe, Thomas, 2006. "Die Förderung beruflicher Weiterbildung : eine mikroökonometrische Evaluation der Ergänzung durch das ESF-BA-Programm," IAB Discussion Paper 200621, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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