Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration
AbstractThis paper develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and a validation exercise ensures that the modelled tendencies closely approximate the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with different scenarios intended to rank the social desirability of alternative behaviours of the regional administration.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 58/2009.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
historical calibration; historical validation; regional dynamic general equilibrium model; historical counterfactual analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-10-10 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DGE-2009-10-10 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-GEO-2009-10-10 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2009-10-10 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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