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Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration

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  • Federico Perali

    ()
    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Stefania Lovo

    ()
    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

This paper develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and a validation exercise ensures that the modelled tendencies closely approximate the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with different scenarios intended to rank the social desirability of alternative behaviours of the regional administration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 58/2009.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:58/2009

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Keywords: historical calibration; historical validation; regional dynamic general equilibrium model; historical counterfactual analysis;

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  1. F. Bonaglia & L. Picci, 2000. "Lo stock di capitale nelle Regioni Italiane," Working Papers 374, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. Kenneth L. Sokoloff & Stanley L. Engerman, 2000. "Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 217-232, Summer.
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  4. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," TMD discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1999. "Validation of models: Statistical techniques and data availability," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-81791, Tilburg University.
  6. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 115-41, June.
  7. Leone Leonida & Carmelo Petraglia & Luis Murillo-Zamorano, 2004. "Total factor productivity and the convergence hypothesis in the Italian regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2187-2193.
  8. Dora Costa & Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "What is Cliometrica," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13502, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. R. Paci & R. Pala & E. Marrocu, 2000. "Estimation of total factor productivity for regions and sectors in Italy. A panel cointegration approach," Working Paper CRENoS 200016, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
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