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Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration

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  • Federico Perali

    () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Stefania Lovo

    () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

This paper develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and a validation exercise ensures that the modelled tendencies closely approximate the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with different scenarios intended to rank the social desirability of alternative behaviours of the regional administration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 58/2009.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:58/2009

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Keywords: historical calibration; historical validation; regional dynamic general equilibrium model; historical counterfactual analysis;

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  4. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 115-41, June.
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  6. Leone Leonida & Carmelo Petraglia & Luis Murillo-Zamorano, 2004. "Total factor productivity and the convergence hypothesis in the Italian regions," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2187-2193.
  7. Dora Costa & Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "What is Cliometrica," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13502, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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