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Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration

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Author Info
Federico Perali () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
Stefania Lovo () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

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Abstract

This paper develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and a validation exercise ensures that the modelled tendencies closely approximate the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with different scenarios intended to rank the social desirability of alternative behaviours of the regional administration.

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File URL: http://dse.univr.it//workingpapers/WP58.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche in its series Working Papers with number 58/2009.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:58/2009

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Related research
Keywords: historical calibration; historical validation; regional dynamic general equilibrium model; historical counterfactual analysis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
R13 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

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