IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2021-05-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market in Iraq Pre-During COVID19 Outbreak: An ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad

    (Department of Business Administration, Cihan University-Duhok and University of Duhok, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.)

Abstract

This study used the econometrics methods to identify the interactions among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock price which represented by the (ISX60) index under the Iraq stock exchange pre-during global pandemic of COVID19. The analysis employed daily data which categorized into three time periods: full sample pre-during COVID19 from 24 December 2018 to 3 September 2020, the pre-COVID19 period from 31 December 2018 to 30 December 2019, as well as during-COVID19 from 27 December 2019 to 3 September 2020 in order to measure the interactions between the variables for each period. To accomplish that the study used the correlation matrix, unit root test to assure the stationary for the ARDL model and the granger causality test. The correlation output showed different results between the variables based on the period division. Furthermore, the study results accepted the null hypothesis of no cointegration exists between the variables respectively for the (Full sample Pre-during and pre-COVID19) period, and no decision could be made about the long-run relationship amongst the variables for the (during-COVID19) period, while the results of the causal short-run model showed that effect of oil price, gold price and exchange rate insignificant with Iraq stock exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad, 2021. "Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market in Iraq Pre-During COVID19 Outbreak: An ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 562-571.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-05-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/11552/6057
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11552/6057
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seyyed Ali Paytakhti Oskooe, 2012. "Oil price shocks and stock market in oil-exporting countries: evidence from Iran stock market," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(4), pages 396-412, December.
    2. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    5. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," Post-Print hal-01410673, HAL.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 219-224.
    8. Bouri, Elie & Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C. & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Cointegration and nonlinear causality amongst gold, oil, and the Indian stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 201-206.
    9. K.P. Prabheesh & Rakesh Padhan & Bhavesh Garg, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Oil Price – Stock Market Nexus - Evidence From Net Oil-Importing Countries," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    10. Asaad, Zeravan, 2014. "The Economic determinants of foreign direct investment inward to Iraq for period (2004-2011)," MPRA Paper 103523, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2014.
    11. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    12. Rizwan Ali & Inayat Ullah Mangla & Ramiz Ur Rehman & Wuzhao Xue & Muhammad Akram Naseem & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, 2020. "Exchange Rate, Gold Price, and Stock Market Nexus: A Quantile Regression Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Investigating the nexus between European major and sectoral stock indices, gold and oil during the COVID-19 pandemic," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-12, April.
    14. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2005. "Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21.
    15. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    16. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Awaz Mohamed Saleem & Hazheen Mardan Mustafa & Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi, 2023. "Regional Stock Market Efficiency at Weak Form after the Covid-19 Vaccination Approval," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 63-70, November.
    2. Bayar Marane, 2022. "Iraq Stock Exchange Performance Determinants: A literature review," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 31(1), pages 397-407, May.
    3. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi, 2022. "Iraqi Stock Exchange Reactions to the Oil price, Covid-19 Aftermath, and the Saudi Stock Exchange Movements pre-during Vaccination Program," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 18-30, September.
    4. Nigar Huseynli, 2023. "BIST Tourism and BIST Electricity Index Relationship," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 306-312, May.
    5. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi & Omed Rafiq Fatah & Awaz Mohamed Saleem, 2023. "Oil Exports, Political Issues, and Stock Market Nexus," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 362-373, January.
    6. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Abdulrazak Nur Mohamed & Idiris Sid Ali Mohamed, 2023. "Precious Metals and Oil Price Dynamics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 119-128, November.
    8. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Imangulu Muradzada & Ziyadhan Hasanov, 2023. "Relationship between Oil Prices and Russia Exchange Indices: Analysis of Frequency Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 607-615, September.
    9. Nigar Huseynli, 2023. "Analyzing the Relationship between Oil Prices and Gold Prices before and after COVID-19," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 373-378, March.
    10. repec:thr:techub:10031:y:2022:i:1:p:397-407 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Imangulu Muradzada & Nurkhodza Akbulev, 2023. "Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Basic Energy Sources and the Tourism Sector Index," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 513-521, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi, 2022. "Iraqi Stock Exchange Reactions to the Oil price, Covid-19 Aftermath, and the Saudi Stock Exchange Movements pre-during Vaccination Program," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 18-30, September.
    2. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    4. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    5. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    7. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    8. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    9. Maitra, Debasish & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the logistics industry: Dynamic connectedness with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Stock markets and energy prices," MPRA Paper 53863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.
    12. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    13. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock price returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," MPRA Paper 80495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Escribano, Ana & Koczar, Monika W. & Jareño, Francisco & Esparcia, Carlos, 2023. "Shock transmission between crude oil prices and stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Spillovers and hedging between US equity sectors and gold, oil, islamic stocks and implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Do Oil Prices Affect Kuwait Sectoral Stock Prices? Non-Linear Cointegration Evidence," Working Papers 1141, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    19. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    20. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID19 Outbreak; Oil Price; Gold Price; Exchange Rate; Stock Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-05-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.