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Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia

Author

Listed:
  • Hayk Karapetyan

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Armenia)

Abstract

Potential output and output gap are important concepts in many areas of economic policy. However they are unobservable and can only be measured with some uncertainty. The paper documents some estimation methods used at the Central Bank of Armenia, discusses some relevant criteria for evaluation of the methods and shows the relative performance of the models across a wide range of criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayk Karapetyan, 2019. "Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia," Working Papers 12, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    • Handle: RePEc:ara:wpaper:012
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cba.am/EN/panalyticalmaterialsresearches/Analytical_21.10.2019.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential Output; Output Gap; Multivariate Filter; Production Function Aproach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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