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Policy initiatives in the global recession: what did forecasters expect?

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  • Carlos Carvalho
  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Christian Grisse

Abstract

The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fiscal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in shaping the outlook for a recovery, as forecasters raised their expectations of inflation and GDP growth after the policies’ implementation. From this perspective, the policies stimulated economic activity and prevented deflationary pressures during the financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2012)
Issue (Month): Feb ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2012:i:feb:n:v.18no.2

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Keywords: Recessions ; Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; Gross domestic product ; Inflation (Finance) ; Economic forecasting;

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  1. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  2. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
  3. Johannes C. Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2009. "Estimated Impact of the Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," NBER Working Papers 15626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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