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On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

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  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Marco Lo Duca
  • Roland Straub

Abstract

The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a procyclical manner for capital flows to emerging markets (EMEs) and a counter-cyclical way for the US, triggering a portfolio rebalancing across countries out of EMEs into US equity and bond funds under QE1, and in the opposite direction under QE2. Second, the impact of Fed operations, such as Treasury and MBS purchases, on portfolio allocations and asset prices dwarfed those of Fed announcements, underlining the importance of the market repair and liquidity functions of Fed policies. Third, we find no evidence that FX or capital account policies helped countries shield themselves from these US policy spillovers, but rather that responses to Fed policies are related to country risk. The results thus illustrate how US unconventional measures have contributed to portfolio reallocation as well as a re-pricing of risk in global financial markets.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.422410.de/dp1304.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1304.

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Length: 62 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1304

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; quantitative easing; portfolio choice; capital flows; Federal Reserve; United States; policy responses; emerging markets; panel data;

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References

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  1. Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "On the International Transmission of Shocks: Micro-Evidence from Mutual Fund Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 17358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Tomasz Wieladek, 2011. "Financial Protectionism: the First Tests," NBER Working Papers 17073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Fawley, Brett W. & Neely, Christopher J., 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
  7. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Working Paper Series 1456, European Central Bank.
  8. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  9. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
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  13. Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Johannes C. Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2009. "Estimated Impact of the Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," NBER Working Papers 15626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  16. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
  18. Malika Pant & Yanliang Miao, 2012. "Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/55, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martinez, Ariadna, 2014. "Global corporate bond issuance: what role for US quantitative easing?," Working Paper Series 1649, European Central Bank.
  2. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
  3. Richhild Moessner, 2014. "International spillovers from US forward guidance to equity markets," DNB Working Papers 427, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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