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A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy

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  • Moritz Cruz
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    Abstract

    A three-regime business cycle model is proposed based on Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using this framework and a Markov switching autoregressive model Mexico's business cycle turning points are identified published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

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    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850500118775&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 399-402

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:7:p:399-402

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    1. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    2. Jan A. Kregel, 1998. "Yes, 'It' Did Happen Again: A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_234, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    5. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
    6. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
    7. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
    8. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H.-M., 1997. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 489, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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