Asymmetry of Information Flow Between Volatilities Across Time Scales
AbstractConventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price changes. On the other hand, statistical properties of monthly price changes are often not fully covered by a model based on daily price changes. In this paper, we simultaneously model regimes of volatilities at multiple time scales through wavelet-domain hidden Markov models. We establish an important stylized property of volatility across different time scales. We call this property asymmetric vertical dependence. It is asymmetric in the sense that a low volatility state (regime) at a long time horizon is most likely followed by low volatility states at shorter time horizons. On the other hand, a high volatility state at long time horizons does not necessarily imply a high volatility state at shorter time horizons. Our analysis provides evidence that volatility is a mixture of high and low volatility regimes, resulting in a distribution that is non-Gaussian. This result has important implications regarding the scaling behavior of volatility, and consequently, the calculation of risk at different time scales
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 27_09.
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision: Jan 2009
Discrete wavelet transform; wavelet-domain hidden Markov trees; foreign exchange markets; stock markets; multiresolution analysis; scaling;
Other versions of this item:
- Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic & Faruk Selcuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2010. "Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 895-915.
- Ramazan Gencay & Faruk Selcuk, 2004. "Asymmetry of Information Flow Between Volatilities Across Time Scales," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
- G0 - Financial Economics - - General
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
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