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Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non-GARCH data

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  • Jalal, Amine
  • Rockinger, Michael

Abstract

We investigate the consequences for Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. In general, we find that the McNeil and Frey (McNeil, A.J. and R. Frey, 2000, Estimation of Tail-Related Risk Measures for Heteroscedastic Financial Time Series: An Extreme Value Approach, Journal of Empirical Finance 7, 271-300.) two step procedure has very good forecasting properties. Using an unconditional non-filtered tail estimate also appears to perform satisfactorily for expected shortfall measurements but less so for VaR computations. Methods assuming specific densities such as the Gaussian or Student-t may yield wrong predictions. Thus, the use of an adequacy test for filtered data to given densities appears relevant. The paper builds on recent techniques to obtain thresholds for extreme value computations. Statistical tests for the expected shortfall, based on the circular bootstrap, are developed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 868-877

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:5:p:868-877

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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Keywords: Extreme value theory Value-at-Risk (VaR) Expected shortfall GARCH Markov switching Jump diffusion Backtesting;

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Cited by:
  1. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. Médecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Huang, Alex YiHou, 2010. "An optimization process in Value-at-Risk estimation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 109-116, August.
  4. Weigert, Florian, 2012. "In Search of Cushion? Crash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns Worldwide," Working Papers on Finance 1325, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Mar 2013.

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