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Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields

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  • Jens H.E. Christensen

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Jose A. Lopez

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation (i.e., a falling price level) using yields on nominal and real U.S. Treasury bonds. The deflation probability forecasts identify two “deflation scares” during the past decade: a mild one following the 2001 recession and a more serious one starting in late 2008 with the deepening of the financial crisis. The estimated deflation probabilities are generally consistent with those from macroeconomic models and surveys of professional forecasters, but they also provide high-frequency insight into the views of financial market participants. The probabilities can also be used to price the deflation protection option embedded in real Treasury bonds.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 21-60

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:4:a:2

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  1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
  3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012. "Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1696, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
  8. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, 03.
  9. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
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  11. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
  12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  15. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
  16. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
  17. Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Jens Christensen & James Gillan, 2011. "TIPS liquidity, breakeven inflation, and inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue june20.
  2. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Jens H.E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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