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Disagreement about the inflation outlook

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  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Justin Weidner

Abstract

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communications strategy.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-31.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): oct5 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:oct5:n:2009-31

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Economic forecasting;

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Cited by:
  1. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  2. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
  3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
  4. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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