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The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS

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Author Info

  • Olesya V. Grishchenko
  • Joel M. Vanden
  • Jianing Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the value of the embedded option in U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The option value exhibits significant time variation that is correlated with periods of deflationary expectations. We use our estimated option values to construct an embedded option price index and an embedded option return index. We then use our embedded option indices as independent variables and examine their statistical and economic significance for explaining the future inflation rate. In most of our regressions, our embedded option return index is significant even in the presence of traditional inflation variables, such as the yield spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, the return on gold bullion, the VIX index return, and the lagged inflation rate. We conduct several robustness tests, including alternative weighting schemes, alternative variable specifications, and alternative data samples. We conclude that the embedded option in TIPS contains useful information for future inflation, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Our results should be valuable to practitioners, monetary authorities, and policymakers alike.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2011-58.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-58

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting ; Inflation-indexed bonds - United States ; Government securities - United States;

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References

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  1. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  2. Albert Lee Chun, 2011. "Expectations, Bond Yields, and Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 208-247.
  3. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2011. "Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps," Working Paper 1107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, 09.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Jarrow, Robert & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2003. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 337-358, June.
  8. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Real term structure and inflation compensation in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 841, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
  3. Jonathan Wright & Yuriy Kitsul, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," 2012 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  5. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  6. Michael Abrahams & Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Pricing TIPS and treasuries with linear regressions," Staff Reports 570, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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