Real term structure and inflation compensation in the euro area
AbstractEstimates of the real term structure for the euro area implied by French index-linked bonds are obtained by means of a smoothing spline methodology. The real term structure allows computation of the constant-maturity inflation compensation, which is compared with the surveyed inflation expectations in order to obtain a rough measure of the inflation risk premium. The comparison between the inflation compensation and the inflation swap shows that the two variables are closely interlinked but differently affected by illiquidity during periods of stress. The methodology used in this paper is quite effective at capturing the general shape of the real term structure while smoothing through idiosyncratic variations in the yields of index-linked bonds. Real interest rates tend to be quite stable at longer horizons and the average 10-year real rate from 2002 to 2009 is close to 2 per cent. Furthermore, evidence is found that inflation compensation was held down in the period 2008-09 by an increase in the liquidity premium of index-linked bonds.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 841.
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
index-linked bond; real term structure; inflation compensation; inflation risk premium; smoothing spline;
Other versions of this item:
- Marcello Pericoli, 2014. "Real Term Structure and Inflation Compensation in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42, March.
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-02-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-02-20 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-02-20 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jarrow, Robert & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2003. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 337-358, June.
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National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Paper 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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