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Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • George Pennacchi
  • Peter Ritchken

Abstract

This paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation’s central tendency, and four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields, yields on inflation-indexed bonds that have an indexation lag, and the term structure of expected inflation. Unlike prior studies, the model’s parameters are estimated using data on inflation swap rates, as well as nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation. The volatility state variables fully determine bonds’ time-varying risk premia and allow for stochastic volatility and correlation between bond yields, yet they have small effects on the cross section of nominal yields. Allowing for time-varying volatility is particularly important for real interest rate and expected inflation processes, but long-horizon real and inflation risk premia are relatively stable. Comparing our model prices of inflation-indexed bonds to those of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) suggests that TIPS were significantly underpriced prior to 2004 and again during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 1107.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1107

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Asset pricing;

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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo Caputo & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2013. "Efficient CPI-Based Taylor Rules in Small Open Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 694, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Marcello Pericoli, 2013. "Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 927, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Michael J. Fleming & John R. Sporn, 2013. "Trading activity and price transparency in the inflation swap market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 45-57.
  4. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
  7. Bauer, Michael D., 2014. "Inflation expectations and the news," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  9. Michael Abrahams & Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Pricing TIPS and treasuries with linear regressions," Staff Reports 570, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Joseph Haslag & William Brock, 2014. "On Understanding the Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation," Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 01 Jul 2014.
  11. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Alan M. Rai, 2013. "The Impact of Policy Initiatives on Credit Spreads during the 2007-09 Financial Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 45-104, March.
  15. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Davis, Scott & Mack, Adrienne, 2013. "Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
  17. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2013. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Working Paper Series 2013-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Joseph W. Gruber & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2012. "Interest rates and the volatility and correlation of commodity prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models," IMF Working Papers 13/212, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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