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Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Jose A. Lopez
  • Paul Mussche

Abstract

Insurance companies and pension funds have liabilities far into the future and typically well beyond the longest maturity bonds trading in fixed-income markets. Such long-lived liabilities still need to be discounted, and yield curve extrapolations based on the information in observed yields can be used. We use dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield curve models for extrapolating risk-free yield curves for Switzerland, Canada, France, and the U.S. We find slight biases in extrapolated long bond yields of a few basis points. In addition, the DNS model allows the generation of useful financial risk metrics, such as ranges of possible yield outcomes over projection horizons commonly used for stress-testing purposes. Therefore, we recommend using DNS models as a simple tool for generating extrapolated yields for long-term interest rate risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul Mussche, 2019. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Working Paper Series 2018-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2018-09
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2018-09
    Note: The first version of this paper was July 6, 2018.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure modeling; capital regulations; insurance companies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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