Deriving inflation expectations from nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields
AbstractThis paper derives a measure of inflation compensation from the yields of a Treasury inflation-indexed security and a portfolio of STRIPS that has similar liquidity and duration as the indexed security. This measure can be used as a proxy for inflation expectations if the inflation risk premium is small. The calculated measure suggests that the rate of inflation expected over the next ten years fell from just under 3% in mid-1997 to just under 1 3/4% by early 1999, before rising back to about 2 1/2% by the beginning of 2000. This variation is more extensive than would have been expected from a simple model of inflation dynamics or from a survey measure of long-run inflation expectations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2000-33.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-10-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2000-10-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2000-10-05 (Monetary Economics)
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