International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities
AbstractUsing tests of time reversibility, this paper provides further statistical evidence on the long-standing conjecture in economics concerning the potentially asymmetric behaviour of output over the expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. A particular advantage of this approach is that it provides a discriminating test that is instructive as to whether any asymmetries detected are due to asymmetric shocks to a linear model, or an underlying non-linear model with symmetric shocks, and in the latter case is informative as to the potential form of that nonlinear model. Using a long span of international per capita output growth data, the asymmetry detected is overwhelmingly consistent with the long standing perception that the output business cycle is characterized by steeper recessions and longer more gentle expansions, but the evidence for this form of business cycle asymmetry is weaker in the data adjusted for the influence of outliers associated with wars and other extreme events. Statistically significant time irreversibility is reported for the output growth rates of almost all of the countries considered in the full sample data, and there is evidence that this time irreversibility is of a form implying an underlying nonlinear model with symmetrically distributed innovations for 15 of the 22 countries considered. However, the time irreversibility test results for the outlier-trimmed full sample data reveal significant time irreversibility in output growth for around one half of the countries considered, predominantly in Northern Europe and North America, and of a form implying a nonlinear underlying model in only a further half of those cases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.
Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hinich , Melvin J. & Rothman, Philip, 1998.
"Frequency-Domain Test Of Time Reversibility,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 72-88, March.
- McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003.
"On detrending and cyclical asymmetry,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289.
- Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995.
"Convergence in International Output,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, octubre-d.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Brannas, K. & Ohlsson, H., 1995.
"Asymmetric Cycles and Temporal Aggregation,"
1995-11, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Falk, Barry L., 1986.
"Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle,"
Staff General Research Papers
11097, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October.
- Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1993.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
- Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jorge Belaire-Franch & Dulce Contreras, 2002. "Higher-order residual analysis for AR-ARCH models with the TR test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 749-752.
- Maria Simona Andreano & Giovanni Savio, 2002. "Further evidence on business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 895-904.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Giles, David E A, 1997. "Testing for Asymmetry in the Measured and Underground Business Cycles in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 225-32, September.
- Westlund, Anders H & Ohlen, Sven, 1991. "On Testing for Symmetry in Business Cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 479-502.
- Psaradakis Zacharias, 2000. "p-Value Adjustments for Multiple Tests for Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-8, October.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, octubre-d.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Kontolemis, Zenon G, 1997. "Does Growth Vary over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence from the G7 Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 441-60, August.
- Mills, Terence C & Crafts, N F R, 2000. "After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 68-91, January.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Contreras, Dulce, 2003. "Tests for time reversibility: a complementarity analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 187-195, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.