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Does Growth Vary over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence from the G7 Countries

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Kontolemis, Zenon G

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Abstract

In this paper the author analyzes the dynamics of business cycles in the G7 countries. His aim is to answer the question of whether growth varies (in an absolute sense) over the business cycle, and hence to examine whether the simple two-phase characterization (downturn/upturn) is an appropriate description of the business cycle. To study growth over the cycle, the author estimates single-country equations and then a pooled regression that takes into account the important interactions of international business cycles. The results confirm the steepness asymmetry of the growth cycles and show that growth varies systematically within upturns and downturns. These are consistent with the notion of deepness asymmetry which implies that contractions are more pronounced in the later stages of a downturn whereas expansions are stronger immediately after troughs. Copyright 1997 by The London School of Economics and Political Science

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 64 (1997)
Issue (Month): 255 (August)
Pages: 441-60
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:64:y:1997:i:255:p:441-60

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  1. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43. [Downloadable!]
  2. Crowley , Patrick & Maraun , Douglas & Mayes , David, 2006. "How hard is the euro are core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. José Cancelo & Estefanía Mourelle, 2005. "Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in GDP: International Evidence," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 297-309, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chol-Won Li, 1998. "Growth and Output Fluctuations," Working Papers 9810, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  6. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  7. Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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