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After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ

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Author Info
Mills, Terence C
Crafts, N F R

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Abstract

This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results offer further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post-war period when catch-up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as sufficient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 68 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 68-91
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:1:p:68-91

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  1. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Maria João Ribeiro Thompson, 2003. "A Nonscale Growth Model with R&D and Human Capital Accumulation," NIPE Working Papers 5/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth after World War II from the Perspective of 2004," NBER Working Papers 11125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Terence C. Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: an international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ribeiro, M.J., 2000. "A Nonscale Growth Model with R&D and Human Capital Accumulation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 574, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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