Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis
AbstractA prediction of a class of neoclassical growth models is that countries with similar levels of integration in the world economy will have parallel long-run growth paths. We test this hypothesis for the OECD, using estimates of long-run mean growth rates of per capita output for each country for the period 1870-2005. The results show strong evidence for unconditional [beta]-convergence only in the post-WWII period of 1951-1974. The results serve as a caution against drawing inferences regarding long-run growth patterns from this sample of countries when the time frame includes the post-WWII golden-age period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Explorations in Economic History.
Volume (Year): 46 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622830
O33 047 F43 Economic growth Convergence Technological change Golden age;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- 047 - - - - - -
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- Eco - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - - - -
- gro - - - - - -
- Con - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - - - -
- Tec - - - - - -
- cha - - - - - -
- Gol - Financial Economics - - - - -
- age - - - - - -
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2006.
"What Determines Immigrations' Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "What Determines Immigration's Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries," NBER Working Papers 12414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999.
"The new empirics of economic growth,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, Paul, 1998.
"Using Panel Data to Evaluate Growth Theories,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 295-306, May.
- Ben-David, D. & Pappel, D.H., 1996.
"Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process Among the G7 Countries,"
5-96, Tel Aviv.
- Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H, 2000. "Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process among the G-7 Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 320-30, April.
- Ben-David, D., 1998. "Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process Among the G7 Countries," Papers 98-01, Houston - Department of Economics.
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993.
"Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Broadberry, Stephen N. & Irwin, Douglas A., 2006. "Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 257-279, April.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004.
18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
- Field, Alexander J., 2006. "Technological Change and U.S. Productivity Growth in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(01), pages 203-236, March.
- Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
- Li, Qing & Papell, David, 1999. "Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 267-280, September.
- Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2003. "Distribution dynamics: stratification, polarization, and convergence among OECD economies, 1870-1992," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 78-97, January.
- Jess Benhabib & Mark Spiegel, 2002.
"Human capital and technology diffusion,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Mills, Terence C & Crafts, N F R, 2000. "After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 68-91, January.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-70, August.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1308, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," IZA Discussion Papers 1313, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1996. "Globalization, Convergence, and History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 277-306, June.
- T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995.
"Convergence in International Output,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
- Irwin, Douglas A., 2002. "Long-run trends in world trade and income," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 89-100, March.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Kneller, 2005. "Frontier Technology, Absorptive Capacity and Distance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 1-23, 02.
- Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1997. "Time-series based tests of the convergence hypothesis: Some positive results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 143-147, October.
- Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2004.
"Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2004. "Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier," NBER Working Papers 10662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
- Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.