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Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis

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  • Landon-Lane, John S.
  • Robertson, Peter E.

Abstract

A prediction of a class of neoclassical growth models is that countries with similar levels of integration in the world economy will have parallel long-run growth paths. We test this hypothesis for the OECD, using estimates of long-run mean growth rates of per capita output for each country for the period 1870-2005. The results show strong evidence for unconditional [beta]-convergence only in the post-WWII period of 1951-1974. The results serve as a caution against drawing inferences regarding long-run growth patterns from this sample of countries when the time frame includes the post-WWII golden-age period.

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  • Landon-Lane, John S. & Robertson, Peter E., 2009. "Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 346-355, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:46:y:2009:i:3:p:346-355
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    2. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    O33 047 F43 Economic growth Convergence Technological change Golden age;

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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