This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Costas Milas

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

March 2007 saw an increase of 3.1% in UK inflation and triggered the first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. The letter gave rise to a lively debate on whether policymakers should pay attention to the link between inflation and M4 money growth. Using UK data since the introduction of inflation targeting in October 1992, we show that: (i) the relationship between inflation and M4 growth is not stable over time, and (ii) the tendency of M4 to exert inflationary pressures is conditional on annual M4 growth exceeding 9.8%. Above this threshold, the money effect on inflation is very small. The implication is that the Monetary Policy Committee should not be particularly worried for not paying close attention to M4 money movements when setting interest rates. Copyright 2009 , Oxford University Press.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpn013
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 61 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 168-182
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:61:y:2009:i:1:p:168-182

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Email:
Web page: http://oep.oupjournals.org/

Order Information:
Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin, Christopher & Milas, C, 2009. "Causes of the Financial Crisis: An Assessment using UK Data," Department of Economics Working Papers 15961, University of Bath, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use convenient plug-ins to search directly IDEAS from your browser.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.