Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK
AbstractThis paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find strong evidence that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear and that inflation adjusted more rapidly in periods of macroeconomic stress such as the mid-1970s, the early 1980s and the late 1980s-early 1990s. Our results imply that inflation will respond more strongly and more rapidly to changes in interest rates when the price level is further away from the steady state level. This has implications for optimal monetary policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 03-03.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
- Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2004-07-11 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2004-07-11 (Macroeconomics)
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- Costas Milas, 2009.
"Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
- Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/07, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Working Paper Series 25-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010.
"Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
- Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
- Zhang, Lingxiang, 2013. "Modeling China's inflation dynamics: An MRSTAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 440-446.
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