Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model
AbstractMarch 2007 saw an increase of 3.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate and triggered the first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. The letter gave rise to a lively debate on whether policymakers should pay attention to the link between inflation and M4 money growth. Using UK data since the introduction of inflation targeting in October 1992, we show that: (i)~the relationship between inflation and M4 growth is not stable over time, and (ii)~the tendency of M4 to exert inflationary pressures is conditional on annual M4 growth exceeding 10\%. Above this threshold, a 1 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate of M4 increases annual inflation by only 0.09 percentage points, whereas a 1 percentage point increase in the disequilibrium between money and its long-run determinants increases annual inflation by only 0.07 percentage points. Since the money effects are very small, the implication is that the Monetary Policy Committee should not be particularly worried for not paying close attention to M4 money movements when setting interest rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2007/07.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Note: I have benefited from the exchange of ideas with Tim Congdon and Chris Martin. Any remaining errors are mine.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581
Fax: +44 (0)1782 717577
Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Other versions of this item:
- Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
- Costas Milas, 2007. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Working Paper Series 25-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-08-08 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-08-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-08-08 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 0261, European Central Bank.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Economics Working Papers
341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Edward Nelson, 2007.
"Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006,"
2007-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Edward Nelson, 2007. "Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 153-182.
- Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003.
"Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK,"
Public Policy Discussion Papers
03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
- Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Hamilton, James D., 1999.
"A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt68s8157x, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
- David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- repec:eid:wpaper:18/09 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:eid:wpaper:15961 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martin E. Diedrich) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Martin E. Diedrich to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.