March 2007 saw an increase of 3.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate and triggered the first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. The letter gave rise to a lively debate on whether policymakers should pay attention to the link between inflation and M4 money growth. Using UK data since the introduction of inflation targeting in October 1992, we show that: (i)~the relationship between inflation and M4 growth is not stable over time, and (ii)~the tendency of M4 to exert inflationary pressures is conditional on annual M4 growth exceeding 10\%. Above this threshold, a 1 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate of M4 increases annual inflation by only 0.09 percentage points, whereas a 1 percentage point increase in the disequilibrium between money and its long-run determinants increases annual inflation by only 0.07 percentage points. Since the money effects are very small, the implication is that the Monetary Policy Committee should not be particularly worried for not paying close attention to M4 money movements when setting interest rates.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number
KERP 2007/07.
Length: 19 pages Date of creation: Jun 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2007/07
Note: I have benefited from the exchange of ideas with Tim Congdon and Chris Martin. Any remaining errors are mine. Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581 Fax: +44 (0)1782 717577 Email: Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/ More information through EDIRC
Order Information: Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom Email: Web: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/pubs_kerps.htm
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Martin E. Diedrich).
Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: